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That estimate arrives courtesy of Macquarie and is well ahead of the research firm’s previous estimate of $169 billion in 2026 taker volume.

Takers is a prediction market industry colloquialism for the market participants that swiftly fill buy and sell orders, thus removing liquidity from the marketplace. Conversely, makers are the market participants viewed as liquidity providers and professional or sharp money.

“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”

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Online casino is ultimately in the business of entertainment – and keeping players entertained means continuing to give them something that feels new. With consumers facing an abundance of competing ways to spend their time, repetition risks making it harder for any entertainment product to hold their attention.

While thousands of new casino games reach the market every year – with research suggesting the number of releases is growing by around 10% each quarter – volume does not necessarily equate to variety. Developing something genuinely different means taking a risk, while the industry’s familiar practice of reskinning existing games, or adapting mechanics and concepts that have already proved successful, offers a much safer commercial proposition.

For James Curwen, chief executive at Yggdrasil, the tension between the industry’s need for fresh content and the commercial realities of producing it goes to the heart of the challenge.

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It is the first time since the market was launched in 2021 that licences have come up for renewal and whomever is on the final list will indicate how many operators have decided not to remain in the market.

The initial 2021 licences are set to expire at the end of September 2026. All licence holders were required to submit applications for the subsequent five-year period, covering 2026 to 2031.

Those that have received renewals include TOTO Online BV (brands: TOTO, Winnitt), Holland Casino NV (Holland Casino Online), Play North Limited (Kansino), FPO Nederland BV (FairPlay Casino), Bingoal Nederland BV (Bingoal), Hillside (New Media Malta) Plc (Bet365), NSUS Malta Limited (GG Poker), and Betent BV (Betcity).