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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
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Both LiveScore and Tombola, who were a part of the original 10 operators to receive a licence, exited the market in 2024.
Compared to the 2021 licensing round, the KSA adopted a more granular and stringent approach to its licence renewal process. This was expected following new policy rules set out by the regulator in September 2025.
One such rule was for licensees that had faced compliance enforcement during the five years operating in the Netherlands.
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Land-based customers often lacked even basic pre-play information, and instead desired subtle, proactive support from staff.
Participants outlined several improvements. Of note were clear and simple financial disclosures, including real-time loss displays and transparent explanations of promotional wagering conditions.
The participants suggested timely and relevant interruptions as well as enhanced onboarding processes and in-game assistance, which could include free-play modes, easy access to concise game rules and AI-driven help to clarify complex terms.