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Lula said he intends to discuss the matter with his team and analyse potential measures to consider the social impact of online betting.

What the president does not acknowledge is that the government relies on revenue from the sector. In just the first seven months of 2026, BRL8.747 billion generated by sports betting has already flowed into public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service estimates the total could reach BRL16 billion by the end of the year. In 2025, nearly BRL9 billion was collected from sportsbooks.

The burning question is where such funds will come from if Lula shuts down the betting industry. Yet, no one points out to him that players will simply migrate to the illegal market. Betting will continue to exist, but without formal tax revenue, oversight or player protections.

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A 1% selective consumption tax (ISC) on the value of every online bet has been in force since 1 July 2025, after the original policy was scrapped from proposed regulations in July 2021.

Atucha warns that regulations are often perceived as operator-friendly at the start before governments begin looking to squeeze licensed sectors, likening the process to “boiling a frog”. He has observed similar scenarios in other LatAm markets, with tax increases occurring in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico in the last couple of years.

Rossi believes the ISC in Peru is an example of a government implementing new taxes without truly understanding how the industry works, and the potential impacts on channelisation to licensed offerings.

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In this context, the regulations developed to protect players begin to function as a means of legitimisation, with illegal operators even using the term “authorised” in their communication and the “.bet” extension in their domain, which is intended only for licensed operators.

According to the governance policies of Meta, the owner of Instagram, gambling platforms can use programmatic advertising services and branded content, provided they receive authorisation from the platform. They cannot target content to individuals under 18 or territories where gambling is not regulated.

To obtain Meta’s approval, the company needs to fill out a form and attach documents proving its operating licence. This same form includes a contract, in the form of an “I accept the terms and conditions” button. In it, the advertiser releases Meta from liability for any violations of the content, including legal or administrative proceedings.